A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
